Chris Brown: Australia’s Uncreative Destruction

by Justin on Jul 01, 2009

There's an excellent piece in today's Mises Daily by Chris Brown which highlights a lot of what I've been saying over the past several months: fiscal 'stimulus' is nothing more than a colossal waste of resources. Here's an excerpt:

"It turns out that Australia's Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is going around town breaking windows by, well, demanding they be built. There are over 35,000 construction and maintenance projects planned across Australia over the next 12 months. This includes AU$49 (US$39.4) billion dedicated to "nation building infrastructure," or crudely AU$2,200 in taxes for every man, woman, and child residing in Australia."

As long as people continue to believe that jobs are all that matter, we're doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past over and over again. Even if the 'stimulus' increased GDP in monetary terms and allowed us to stave off a technical recession, it will not create any additional real wealth or production in the economy; at best it will merely divert it.

Elsewhere, the RBA released their latest financial aggregates. Nothing too surprising in there, with monetary growth (M1, M3, broad money, money base, currency etc) all remaining about 15% YoY. Two noticeable changes were the increase in term and other non-government deposits by almost 30% YoY indicating that people are increasing their savings which is a good thing. A more worrying sign is that lending to the government by all financial intermediaries (AFI's) was up 273% YoY, a perfect example of the government squeezing the lending industry. At some stage the banks are going to have to increase the interest rates on their loans at which point the RBA will need to decide whether they a) sit back and watch (possibly raise rates too); or b) start printing money to keep rates down, thereby causing inflation.

Interesting times indeed...

Site Comments

  • Justin's avatar
  • Justin
  • Fri Jul 3, 2009
  • 04.35 am

“True Money Supply” as developed by Rothbard and Salerno (currency in circulation + transaction and saving deposits) was up 12.3% YoY from April last year.

Historically it has been a pretty good indicator of the boom/bust cycle - money growth began slowing in approx. Sep/Oct 2007 and was slow until Feb/March of this year where it started to pick up quite a bit. Usually that means inflation is coming…

Also, the RBA started to buy Treasury notes for the first time since 2003 in April. $25 million in April then $1.33 billion in May. The data for June is going to be interesting!!

Here’s a great article by Steve Saville on why inflation and not deflation is likely.

 

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