Archive

The full Aussienomics archive of short economic notes and long-form essays.

2024
Friday Fodder (20/24)
Long-form essay
The federal government wants to create a big new database to protect us from ourselves; who would an autonomous vehicle choose to save, a pedestrian or its passengers; a tale of two central banks; and the UK election in one chart (it's not looking good for Rishi).
Why real wages had to fall
Long-form essay
Real wages in Australia have stagnated because the pandemic made us all poorer; a lack of wage growth just reflects that reality. If we push wages further above productivity, we risk disemployment, a wage-price spiral, and even a painful recession.
Peter Dutton claims cutting migration will free up over 100,000 homes and fix Australia's housing crisis. But his numbers don't add up and the impact will likely be minimal. Dutton's playing to anti-migration sentiment rather than addressing the real policy drivers behind unaffordable housing.
Friday Fodder (19/24)
Long-form essay
Biden's tariffs are a glimpse into our Future Made in Australia; the Americans are an innovative bunch (no wonder they're so productive); who benefits from the welfare state; the post-pandemic war on prices; and how the Jevons Paradox is shaping artificial intelligence.
The government's policies are unlikely to solve Australia's current housing crisis, which stems from both long-term zoning issues and a recent spike in construction costs. But it could be worse - at least they've avoided reckless ideas like rent freezes, which would devastate the housing market.
An independent Reserve Bank of Australia is crucial for economic stability and low inflation. However, a big-spending Budget and attempts to politicise the central bank would jeopardise its independence, leading to higher inflation.
Friday Fodder (18/24)
Long-form essay
Are smartphones poison to young people; why the Victorian and Western Australian Budgets really irk me; the yanks may have finally spent all their pandemic savings; Europe is confronting the realities of industrial policy; and if you think housing is bad in Australia, at least it's not this bad.
Rather than fairer and cheaper, Albo's HECS changes will make the scheme more regressive and expensive, benefiting middle-to-upper income households, distorting work-study incentives, and failing to address real barriers faced by disadvantaged groups.
What's up with Japan?
Long-form essay
The yen's collapse has made Japan a tourist hotspot, but it has also sparked crisis fears. While a full-blown crisis is unlikely due to Japan's relatively low interest costs and its ability to raise taxes, an ever-aging population and repeated policy missteps are only increasing the risks.
Friday Fodder (17/24)
Long-form essay
A Future Made in Australia picked its latest winner (or loser?); how tipping became the scourge of democracy; should we get rid of non-compete clauses; Steven Miles attempts to buy votes; and the China globalisation paradox.