Hot Take: Government by AI

Did the Trump administration use AI to devise its tariffs?

Trump's Liberation Day

The US will impose a minimum 10% tariff on all of its trading partners, including Australia.

Xi Jinping's pivot

Xi Jinping's market pivot aims to resuscitate China's economy, but bloated subsidies and a global trade war might choke the recovery.

The unwanted Budget, Don't blame Alfred for inflation, Productivity not protectionism, You don't need six figures to afford rent, Dutton's dangerous idea, and Solar's Achilles' heel

Please note that I'm travelling internationally this week and will have limited access to a computer, so Aussienomics will be taking a short breather ahead of the inevitable chaos that will be the run-up to the federal election, which—if called by the end of this month—could

The end of climate decadence

Economic reality trumps climate dreams in a world where money is no longer free.

Does Australia need a DOGE?

A DOGE won't fix Australia's productivity mess—it might just sink it deeper into the muck.

The Trump Slump, Full marks for Albo, Energy prices are telling us something, and Gittins it wrong on inflation (again)

The Trump Bump has officially become the Trump Slump, with the current US administration's incessant focus on tariffs contributing to one of their greatest tailspins of all time: The crash has been uniquely American: Markets are forward-looking—they reflect investor consensus of what's likely to happen

Cyclone Alfred's insurance fallout

Insurance companies aren't 'ripping off' Australians, but navigating complex market forces and inflationary pressures.

Should Australia have four-year terms?

The timing of the upcoming election exposes the economic trade-offs between recurring polls and long-term policy stability.

The federal election, Trumpian uncertainty, Europe goes to war, and Australia's political productivity problem

Barring major cyclonic damage from Alfred as it barrels into Brisbane tomorrow morning—for those of you in its path, stay safe!—Albo appears all but certain to call an election on either Sunday or Monday, after the week's expenditure review committee (ERC) meetings were all reportedly cancelled.

Hot Take: Solid growth, hidden pressures

Australia's December quarter GDP was robust but there are plenty of gremlins lurking beneath the surface, with implications for inflation and interest rates.

It's time for CANZUK

As the US swings towards isolationism, Australia must forge new alliances to safeguard its interests.

Geopolitics

The economic consequences of the peace

Trump's failed peace deal leaves Ukraine exposed, allies wary, and aggressors empowered.

Energy

Solar's death spiral

WA's battery subsidy is an expensive fix for today's grid issues that risks undermining its long-term economics.

Monetary policy

The RBA's inflation trap

How monetary easing and unchecked government spending may threaten Australia's fragile recovery.

Industrial policy

Another costly bailout, Medicare's funding boost, 13 ideas to fix housing, why the WA GST deal is fair, and the decline of German trains

This update has become something of a weekly policy analysis wrap, given the flurry of announcements we're getting ahead of a federal election that now looks like it'll be held on or before 12 April (today is the deadline for a 29 March election to be

Housing

Can we fix housing?

Decades of policy decisions have strangled construction productivity, making housing increasingly unaffordable in Australia.

Monetary policy

Hot Take: A hawkish cut

The RBA has cautiously cut rates, but was it a mistake? Implications for the federal election and a warning from America.

Transport

Don't nationalise Rex, A blow for democracy, Will Trump tariff Australia, Beating megafires, and When billionaires feud

The Albanese government dropped a policy bomb on Sunday: a complete ban on foreign investors and temporary residents purchasing established homes for two years. I would write something about it, but I already did when Dutton proposed the same policy a couple of weeks ago. TL;DR: it's

Transport

How to lose a state election

Western Australia's upcoming election promises bigger subsidies for roads and rail, but unchecked spending fuels congestion, rewards sprawl, and leaves taxpayers with the bill.

Food

Closing the gap by making it larger

Or how to hurt the very people you claim you're trying to help.

Inflation

Rate cuts may not help Albo, Cost of living still elevated, We need fiscal rules, and Australia doesn't deserve a sovereign wealth fund.

Sometime this week US President Trump is set to unveil reciprocal tariffs "that match the duties imposed by other countries". Australia has very few tariffs left these days and has had a trade agreement with the US since 2005, so presumably won't be targeted (the agricultural

Trade

The Mar-a-Lago Accord

Could a global currency accord be Trump's tariff end-game?

Trade

More on Trump's tariffs, Albo's upper class welfare, Dutton's housing gimmick, Canada's pain, Australia's challenges, and why are so many of us disabled

The fallout from the first Trump 2.0 tariffs has continued into the week, with the latest casualty (other than global equities) being the risky crypto that had been bid up on what was 'supposed' to be a market-friendly Trump government: Crypto and equities subsequently rebounded a little