Justin Pyvis
Justin has a PhD in Economics and over 20 years of experience in applied economic, policy and investment analysis with the WA Treasury and AECOM in Perth, and Aletheia Capital in Hong Kong. He writes Aussienomics in between freelance gigs and work on a book covering the policies that create the conditions for prosperity.
2024
Australia's migration slowdown will ease housing issues but exacerbate its ageing population and fiscal problems, requiring unpopular entitlement reform and improved fertility rates to sustainably fund old-age benefits.
Biden's new China tariffs are driven by politics, not economics or national security. But protectionism tends to beget more protectionism, risking trade wars that could cause significant damage to the global economy.
The federal government wants to create a big new database to protect us from ourselves; who would an autonomous vehicle choose to save, a pedestrian or its passengers; a tale of two central banks; and the UK election in one chart (it's not looking good for Rishi).
Real wages in Australia have stagnated because the pandemic made us all poorer; a lack of wage growth just reflects that reality. If we push wages further above productivity, we risk disemployment, a wage-price spiral, and even a painful recession.
Peter Dutton claims cutting migration will free up over 100,000 homes and fix Australia's housing crisis. But his numbers don't add up and the impact will likely be minimal. Dutton's playing to anti-migration sentiment rather than addressing the real policy drivers behind unaffordable housing.
Biden's tariffs are a glimpse into our Future Made in Australia; the Americans are an innovative bunch (no wonder they're so productive); who benefits from the welfare state; the post-pandemic war on prices; and how the Jevons Paradox is shaping artificial intelligence.
The government's policies are unlikely to solve Australia's current housing crisis, which stems from both long-term zoning issues and a recent spike in construction costs. But it could be worse - at least they've avoided reckless ideas like rent freezes, which would devastate the housing market.
An independent Reserve Bank of Australia is crucial for economic stability and low inflation. However, a big-spending Budget and attempts to politicise the central bank would jeopardise its independence, leading to higher inflation.
Are smartphones poison to young people; why the Victorian and Western Australian Budgets really irk me; the yanks may have finally spent all their pandemic savings; Europe is confronting the realities of industrial policy; and if you think housing is bad in Australia, at least it's not this bad.
Rather than fairer and cheaper, Albo's HECS changes will make the scheme more regressive and expensive, benefiting middle-to-upper income households, distorting work-study incentives, and failing to address real barriers faced by disadvantaged groups.