Justin Pyvis
Justin has a PhD in Economics and over 20 years of experience in applied economic, policy and investment analysis with the WA Treasury and AECOM in Perth, and Aletheia Capital in Hong Kong. He writes Aussienomics in between freelance gigs and work on a book covering the policies that create the conditions for prosperity.
2024
How are interest rates affecting Australia; merger reform and misunderstanding competition; India's Modi and policy uncertainty; and does Australia need parliamentary reform?
China's economy faces structural issues that Xi's policies can't fix. His "new quality productive forces" strategy will distort the economy and fail to make China rich. To stay ahead, Australia should embrace China's subsidised exports to benefit consumers while ensuring economic flexibility.
The Albanese government's "new approach" to industrial policy is simply mid-20th century interventionism with a lick of green paint. It is wasting money on uncompetitive industries and creating a reliance on subsidies that are politically difficult to remove, burdening consumers and taxpayers.
Inflation should be the highest policy priority; Bayesian reasoning and the Wuhan lab leak; the urgent need for economic reform; how to reduce debt, Jamaica style; and even when wrong, models can be useful.
Australia risks "sticky" inflation if real wages start to outpace productivity, requiring higher rates longer and job losses as businesses start to adjust on the employment rather than not wage margin. Continued fiscal deficits also fan future inflation risks.
Brisbane should withdraw from hosting the 2032 Olympics. The cancellation costs will pale into comparison to the billions that will be wasted in cost overruns and the creation of underutilised facilities, funds which would be much better spent on other priorities.
Javier Milei's troubles in Argentina; the death of the Scottish Enlightenment; how to regulate AI; Bowen's emission's backdown; the limits of industrial policy; how not to fix housing; and how happy are we, really?
Oh boy. Another year, another GST carve-up that led to a flurry of complaints from the states that ’lost out’. This time it was the NSW and QLD Labor governments that were the most vocal, with NSW facing a $310 million cut, while QLD lost $469 million. For context, that’s a total revenue cut of around 0.25% and 0.55% in 2024-25 for each state, respectively – closer to a Budget rounding error than a major policy decision.
Tasmanians will go to the polls tomorrow but it's looking like it'll be more of the same; I ask whether you should you fly on a Boeing; why Xi Jinping's leadership meant Evergrande was inevitable; and what's going on across the ditch.
The NBN was a costly mistake that has failed to earn a commercial return, hindered competition, and its business model is being undermined by new technologies. Might it be time to rethink the experiment?