Aussienomics

Essays

A collection of long-form economic essays.

2025
The Trump Put lives on, A rate cut in May, Batteries for everyone, We're still reliant on luck, and Who drives in Australia.
Just like that, and the tariff scare is over—or is it? Global markets rallied 5-10% yesterday because Trump, in the face of a near-certain recession and equity and bond market carnage, backed off and hit pause.
Investment will suffer in the age of Trumpian uncertainty
Trump's unpredictability threatens global investment with chaos, zero-sum thinking, and rent-seeking, even if he winds back his tariffs.
Trump isn't playing 4D chess
He just really likes tariffs.
Government by AI
Did the Trump administration use AI to devise its tariffs?
Trump's Liberation Day
The US will impose a minimum 10% tariff on all of its trading partners, including Australia.
Xi Jinping's pivot
Xi Jinping's market pivot aims to resuscitate China's economy, but bloated subsidies and a global trade war might choke the recovery.
The unwanted Budget, Don't blame Alfred for inflation, Productivity not protectionism, You don't need six figures to afford rent, Dutton's dangerous idea, and Solar's Achilles' heel
Please note that I’m travelling internationally this week and will have limited access to a computer, so Aussienomics will be taking a short breather ahead of the inevitable chaos that will be the run-up to the federal election, which—if called by the end of this month—could be held as soon as 3 May.
The end of climate decadence
Economic reality trumps climate dreams in a world where money is no longer free.
Does Australia need a DOGE?
A DOGE won't fix Australia's productivity mess—it might just sink it deeper into the muck.
The Trump Slump, Full marks for Albo, Energy prices are telling us something, and Gittins it wrong on inflation (again)
The Trump Bump has officially become the Trump Slump, with the current US administration’s incessant focus on tariffs contributing to one of their greatest tailspins of all time: