Hot Take: November's inflation and the RBA's dilemma
Inflation cooled in November, with implications for interest rates.
Australia's monthly inflation figures for November were released this morning, providing some insight into the all-important December quarterly figures and what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might be thinking ahead of its 17–18 February meeting.
I say some for a few reasons. First, the ABS hasn't (yet) fully resourced its monthly consumer price index (CPI) indicator. This release only includes updates for 77% of prices in the basket, and only 48% of them are monthly (the rest being annual or quarterly collections).
Second, Black Friday came late in November this year, which could affect the Bureau's seasonal adjustment.
Third, a hodgepodge of federal and state electricity rebates have distorted the headline figure, as has the rebound from various low income and first home buyer assistance packages that suppressed housing costs in October.
Breaking it down
Monthly CPI increased to 2.3% in the year to November from 2.1% in October. Meanwhile, the trimmed mean measure fell to 3.2% from 3.5%.
Still too hot for the RBA but certainly getting closer. Here's the ABS:
