Hot Take: Trump's first day

Normally I wouldn't have even considered writing a Hot Take for a leadership change in another country, but the US – and its new President – are a special kind of beast. There's just so much power vested in the executive branch of the US government these days, and significant uncertainty as to how that power will be wielded, that it can easily move global markets and economies in major ways.

Donald Trump as President is basically peak uncertainty. I mean, this is a guy who just days out from being inaugurated launched a meme "Trump coin" designed to rip off his own supporters:

So buckle up, because it's gonna be a wild four years!

Trump's executive orders

Donald Trump has only been in office for around 10 hours. But he has already signed "close to 100" executive orders, with plans to scale that up to 200 in his first week. That would almost match the entirety of his first term, during which he signed 220 orders (although Biden revoked 72 of them):

There are far too many to cover and many will be challenged in court, such as his order to end birthright citizenship for children of noncitizens. So I'm going to focus solely on the orders that look to be the most economically impactful, with a specific focus on those that could affect Australia.

"We will drill, baby, drill"

The most important day 1 decision was Trump's declaration of a national energy emergency:

"'The United States will not sabotage our own industries while China pollutes with impunity', Trump said during a ceremony at Capitol One Arena, where he signed multiple orders in front of roaring supporters. The actions included revoking 78 Biden-era actions.

By calling a national emergency on energy, Trump is making it the priority of his administration to increase the domestic production of oil and other forms of fossil-fuel energy, White House officials said. It comes as U.S. crude oil production has already hit an all-time high over the past year."

Energy might be where Trump and the US have the biggest influence on the global economy. Yes, even more than his famous tariffs! That's because where the US goes on energy, the rest of the world will be pressured to follow.