Parliament's hectic week, a new era in policymaking, and a glimpse into Australia's future
The Albanese government took the guillotine to democracy; Argentina is getting a good old-fashioned dose of microeconomic reform; what Victoria can teach the rest of Australia; prediction markets and the future of forecasting; and trade works in roundabout ways.
It was a busy week for the federal parliament, with the government attempting to "ram through" 37 bills in just 4 hours ahead of a long summer break – they don't sit again until February.
Only one hour of debate was held for a single bill – social media age limits – thanks to a "guillotine motion" negotiated with the Greens and several cross bench senators that suspended debate for the rest. Ultimately, 31 of the 37 bills or amendments passed – 27 bills with the help of the Greens, plus 4 with the Coalition – in what was a sad day for democracy described by independent MP Monique Ryan as follows:
"We need a government that will consider legislation appropriately, with consideration of due process, in a way which is evidence-based and reasonable. What we are seeing right now is not that."
Thankfully, the worst of the lot – the truly despicable misinformation bill – was not included as part of the guillotine; it was shelved (for now) due to lack of support, along with the destructive plan to tax unrealised capital gains via a new tax on superannuation balances over $3 million, and campaign financing reforms that would have further entrenched the Liberal/Labor duopoly.
But that's where the good news ends. From an economic point of view, most of what passed were either gimmicks that won't do much to achieve their stated ends, or will be outright damaging with costs outweighing benefits. For example:
- The questionable Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reforms that split its management into two boards, but now the government will retain the power to override decisions on interest rates, and the RBA will be able to direct private banks how to lend, both of which the review into the RBA recommended against (for good reason!).
- Build to Rent, a gimmick that will do little more than pad the bottom line of developers who were going to build anyway. A late change means it will also ban no-fault evictions, a rule already in force everywhere except WA that is generally considered bad for tenants because it restricts supply, so tends to "exacerbate housing insecurity and lower welfare".
- Help to Buy, a housing demand subsidy that will benefit a chosen few but make overall housing affordability worse.
- A Future Made in Australia, which is the fancy name for Labor's revival of industrial policy that will inevitably end up being a terrible waste of resources.
It was also a bad week for democracy, and not just because of the lack of debate and process orchestrated by a Prime Minister who only two years ago promised to act with "integrity, fairness, accountability, responsibility and the public interest".
No, the real blow to democracy came after the bill mandating social media age limits – which will in practice mandate age verification for all social media users – passed both houses.
While easily bypassed with a simple VPN, the bill "creates a framework that could easily be repurposed for broader surveillance and control beyond age verification", paving the way for the de-anonymisation and tracking of all online browsing and discourse in the future.
Don't want to hand over your government-issued ID to a foreign social media company? No worries, you just have to let them scan your face instead! For all intents and purposes, by late next year Australian internet may soon resemble China's.
What's next, social credit scores?
A new era in microeconomic policymaking
In Argentina, of all places:
"Milei... has broken the mould of previous stabilisation programmes by focusing on microeconomics and institutional reform. Under the leadership of economist Federico Sturzenegger, the government has begun to dismantle decades-old webs of regulation, intermediaries, middlemen and tariffs that stymied innovation, productivity and competition. As a result, inflationary pressures have ebbed as transaction costs have declined.
For example, political organisations such as La Campora, a Peronist youth organisation co-founded by the son of former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, administered many social assistance schemes, building a clientelist relationship with the poor. Milei's reforms have taken the Campora out of the loop and distributed benefits directly, increasing the net amount that people received. This approach, enacted at the micro level rather than the macro, has been replicated throughout the country, eliminating many of the bottlenecks that have made life so difficult and expensive for millions of ordinary Argentines."
It takes a long time to get anything done in many parts of Australia because rules and regulations have been expanding, nearly unchecked, for many decades. While each rule might have merit taken on its own, put them all together and they work together to kill off productive activity.
For example, in Sydney planning approval takes an average of three years. Green energy projects can be delayed for so long that the proponents eventually withdraw, citing "extended delays" and "policy ambiguity". If mining projects aren't vetoed at the last minute by federal ingenuous or environmental discretion, they can still take half a decade to be approved. Business Chamber Queensland last year estimated that a third of businesses have staff on their books solely to "manage their regulatory compliance", with the median regulatory compliance costs now $50,000 a year, up from $25,000 in 2021.
To use a metaphor, the growing regulatory burden is like water slowly warming until it eventually boils. The economy can survive for a long time, until it can't. We're not yet Argentina, but that doesn't mean a heavy dose of good old-fashioned microeconomic reform isn't also needed down under.
Victoria is a glimpse into Australia's future
If we don't get our act together, that is: