Budget

Jim Chalmers' planned superannuation changes are an inefficient tax grab with damaging unintended consequences.

Just like that, and the tariff scare is over—or is it? Global markets rallied 5-10% yesterday because Trump, in the face of a near-certain recession and equity and bond market carnage, backed off and hit pause.

Please note that I’m travelling internationally this week and will have limited access to a computer, so Aussienomics will be taking a short breather ahead of the inevitable chaos that will be the run-up to the federal election, which—if called by the end of this month—could be held as soon as 3 May.

Sometime this week US President Trump is set to unveil reciprocal tariffs “that match the duties imposed by other countries”. Australia has very few tariffs left these days and has had a trade agreement with the US since 2005, so presumably won’t be targeted (the agricultural exemptions were inserted to protect US farmers, not Australian).

I trust everyone’s nice and refreshed from the summer break! Lots of interesting things to discuss today, starting with some positive-sounding housing policy news from NSW.

The mid-year budget update was depressingly bad; AI won't leave a third of workers unemployable; a Future Made in Australia will politicise the economy; Argentina's remarkable year and what it means for Australia; another look at hydrogen; and the per capita recession may already be over.

While the US economy is hitting all the right notes—low unemployment, stable inflation, and strong wage growth—massive deficits and reckless policy proposals could tip the scales.

A closer look at Australia's budget surplus reveals a mix of fiscal accidents, hidden tax hikes, and misguided government spending that could leave the country facing a decade of deficits.

In an era of rising government debt and structural deficits, Australia's once-promising Future Fund now resembles a costly financial albatross.

Queensland's Budget shows why we need fiscal rules; how households have fared since the pandemic; dictators and their hidden wealth; what Bootleggers and Baptists mean for climate targets; and Europe swings to the right (or did it?).