Inflation

Please note that I’m travelling internationally this week and will have limited access to a computer, so Aussienomics will be taking a short breather ahead of the inevitable chaos that will be the run-up to the federal election, which—if called by the end of this month—could be held as soon as 3 May.

The Trump Bump has officially become the Trump Slump, with the current US administration’s incessant focus on tariffs contributing to one of their greatest tailspins of all time:

Australia's December quarter GDP was robust but there are plenty of gremlins lurking beneath the surface, with implications for inflation and interest rates.

How monetary easing and unchecked government spending may threaten Australia's fragile recovery.

The RBA has cautiously cut rates, but was it a mistake? Implications for the federal election and a warning from America.

Sometime this week US President Trump is set to unveil reciprocal tariffs “that match the duties imposed by other countries”. Australia has very few tariffs left these days and has had a trade agreement with the US since 2005, so presumably won’t be targeted (the agricultural exemptions were inserted to protect US farmers, not Australian).

The December quarter CPI inflation data were softer than expected.

Strong labour force data in December have all but ruled out a February rate cut.

Inflation cooled in November, with implications for interest rates.

As Australia grapples with its post-pandemic recovery, the principal macro challenge remains inflation.