Inflation
2024
Price gouging is (almost) always good; the EU's tariffs could have been worse; culture beats policy when it comes to fertility; time for fiscal responsibility; and the reality of industrial policy.
The RBA's conflicting statements on uncertainty and accountability expose a dangerous pattern of misguided forward guidance and unlearned lessons, threatening its credibility and effectiveness in controlling inflation.
As the Australian government attempts to manipulate inflation metrics through targeted spending, the RBA finds itself in a balancing act between economic stability and political pressure, echoing historical tensions between Nixon and the Fed.
A closer look at the recent market rout reveals underlying concerns about Australia's economy, and that the RBA's next moves will be as crucial as ever.
Inflation is caused by fiscal and monetary policy, not by migrants or other supply shocks, which can only temporarily affect measured inflation by altering relative prices in the economy.
It's probably too late in the cycle to hike rates any further when what's desperately needed is tax, spending and regulatory reform.
Interest rates have come down in Canada and the eurozone. When will Australia follow suit?
Australia's March quarter inflation figures came in above expectations. Especially worrying was the sticky services and non-tradables inflation, making rate cuts very unlikely this year. To fix inflation we desperately need fiscal policy to start working with monetary policy, rather than against it.
How are interest rates affecting Australia; merger reform and misunderstanding competition; India's Modi and policy uncertainty; and does Australia need parliamentary reform?
Inflation should be the highest policy priority; Bayesian reasoning and the Wuhan lab leak; the urgent need for economic reform; how to reduce debt, Jamaica style; and even when wrong, models can be useful.