Tasmania can't afford a new stadium
A vote of no confidence against Tasmania’s Premier Jeremy Rockliff passed last night. Rather than stand down, Rockliff said he will pass a supply bill on Tuesday to ensure government continues to function before asking the Lieutenant-Governor for an early election.
For those who pay attention to these things, this could be the second early election Rockliff has called in 16 months—while Tasmania has four-year terms, they’ve barely been getting through two of them lately!
Rockliff’s issues stem from a deeply divided parliament. He called the last election more than a year earlier than he had to precisely because of his lack of a majority, but instead got an even bigger swing against his Liberal Party.
The reason for the division is that the Tasmanian economy is in bad shape. The latest no confidence vote was triggered because the opposition was worried about “growing state debt, the plan to cut public sector jobs, and sell state assets”.
All perfectly valid reasons. Indeed, Rockliff has effectively dispelled any notion that the Liberals—who have been in power for a decade—are the party of fiscal conservatism, racking up debt at unprecedented levels:
Cutting the public sector just reeks of desperation; of a party bereft of ideas. As I wrote about Peter Dutton’s ill-fated plan to do the same ahead of the federal election:
“The ’type 2’ bureaucrats who favour a quiet, secure career—and generally don’t care for, or even actively resist, controversy or innovation—won’t go anywhere. Neither will the dead weight that sit at their desks but do very little, creating more work, stress and frustration for their remaining colleagues.
That means the only people leaving will be retirees and those with marketable private sector skills (including overworked, highly productive employees). The end result will be reduced state capacity and the temptation to fall back on expensive consultants to fill the holes, as happened under the Morrison government.”
As for the cause of the growing debt, it’s largely self-inflicted. Here’s reporting by The Australian:
“Tasmania’s minority Liberal government will double state debt while funding a new AFL stadium and increase spending while running deficits for the foreseeable future.
The Rockliff government will allow net debt – negligible when the Liberals came to power in 2014 – to further balloon, from $5.26bn this financial year to $10.78bn in 2028-29.
New Treasurer Guy Barnett’s first budget includes $615m for the controversial $945m Hobart AFL stadium, with a further $343m in debt expected, barring further cost blowouts.”
Ah yes, the new billion-dollar AFL stadium, designed with a capacity of 23,000, or nearly 10% of Greater Hobart’s population. Excessive? Just a tad. In fact, at roughly $41,000 per seat it would be one of the most expensive stadiums in the world—assuming no further cost blowouts (hah!):
Publicly-financed stadiums are built on highly dubious economic grounds. When you over-build and gold-plate them like Rockliff is doing, even the dodgy business case you paid some consultant to conjure up quickly evaporates. And there’s simply no justification for why the primary user and beneficiary—in this case, the AFL—is on the hook for at most 1.5% of the billion-dollar price tag.
Rockliff and the Liberal Party desperately need a reality check. Perhaps yet another premature election will deliver it.
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