Deep Dives
The best case for Trump's tariffs
A tug-of-war between tariff hard-liners and pro-trade advisors leaves jittery markets waiting on Trump's next make-or-break reversal.
Justin Pyvis
Justin has a PhD in Economics and over 20 years of experience in applied economic, policy and investment analysis with the WA Treasury and AECOM in Perth, and Aletheia Capital in Hong Kong.
Elections
Oz Econ Pulse: Peter Dutton, Tradie shortage, Donald-25 mind virus, and Economists against tariffs
No doubt many of you are still enjoying a long Easter/ANZAC Day break, but for those of you pining for some economic news, here are a few bits of interest that caught my eye this week—starting with my comprehensive essay on Peter Dutton. Peter Dutton is a man
Deep Dives
The man without a plan
Peter Dutton's constant backflips reveal a politician adrift, lacking both vision and the resolve to differentiate himself from Anthony Albanese.
Housing
Oz Econ Pulse: Housing policy, Albo's record, Election flop, Why pollies don't reform
This is the first of what I intend to become a regular Oz Econ Pulse, a free roundup of the economic, political, and social trends that impact Australia. Normally I'd send it out on a Friday or Saturday but with the Easter break this is a short week,
Deep Dives
The tragedy of Albanese
Once brimming with promise, the Albanese government has stumbled through a cost-of-living crisis, divided the nation with polarising politics, and embraced ideological economic experiments, leaving Australia weaker, less competitive, and saddled with debt.
Housing
Dumb and dumber housing policy
Both major parties are set to throw cash at first home buyers, which in Australia's choked housing market, will bid up prices and unleash unintended consequences.
Monetary policy
The Trump Put lives on, A rate cut in May, Batteries for everyone, We're still reliant on luck, and Who drives in Australia
Just like that, and the tariff scare is over—or is it? Global markets rallied 5-10% yesterday because Trump, in the face of a near-certain recession and equity and bond market carnage, backed off and hit pause. So there is still a Trump Put! Markets can still discipline politicians to
Deep Dives
Investment will suffer in the age of Trumpian uncertainty
Trump's unpredictability threatens global investment with chaos, zero-sum thinking, and rent-seeking, even if he winds back his tariffs.
Deep Dives
Trump isn't playing 4D chess
He just really likes tariffs.
Artificial intelligence
Government by AI
Did the Trump administration use AI to devise its tariffs?
Trade
Trump's Liberation Day
The US will impose a minimum 10% tariff on all of its trading partners, including Australia.
Deep Dives
Xi Jinping's pivot
Xi Jinping's market pivot aims to resuscitate China's economy, but bloated subsidies and a global trade war might choke the recovery.