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Justin Pyvis

Justin has a PhD in Economics and over 20 years of experience in applied economic, policy and investment analysis with the WA Treasury and AECOM in Perth, and Aletheia Capital in Hong Kong.

📍 Australia

AI as a force multiplier

Today's AI, with its many flaws, is more of a force multiplier than revolutionary tech. Australia should avoid rushing to compete with global leaders in the name of AI sovereignty and instead focus on building guardrails, without being so prescriptive as to kill innovative attempts at AI diffusion.

How can we afford not to?

Australia should resist Albo's "Future Made in Australia", which will make all but a few well-connected businesses and workers worse off. Instead, we should focus on boosting industry productivity through reforms such as eliminating trade barriers and zoning restrictions.

Friday Fodder (14/24)

How are interest rates affecting Australia; merger reform and misunderstanding competition; India's Modi and policy uncertainty; and does Australia need parliamentary reform?

Can Xi Jinping rescue China's economy?

China's economy faces structural issues that Xi's policies can't fix. His "new quality productive forces" strategy will distort the economy and fail to make China rich. To stay ahead, Australia should embrace China's subsidised exports to benefit consumers while ensuring economic flexibility.

Why Australia should stop digging into industrial policy

The Albanese government's "new approach" to industrial policy is simply mid-20th century interventionism with a lick of green paint. It is wasting money on uncompetitive industries and creating a reliance on subsidies that are politically difficult to remove, burdening consumers and taxpayers.

Friday Fodder (13/24)

Inflation should be the highest policy priority; Bayesian reasoning and the Wuhan lab leak; the urgent need for economic reform; how to reduce debt, Jamaica style; and even when wrong, models can be useful.

A sticky, stagflationary mess

Australia risks "sticky" inflation if real wages start to outpace productivity, requiring higher rates longer and job losses as businesses start to adjust on the employment rather than not wage margin. Continued fiscal deficits also fan future inflation risks.

Brisbane should sprint from the Olympics

Brisbane should withdraw from hosting the 2032 Olympics. The cancellation costs will pale into comparison to the billions that will be wasted in cost overruns and the creation of underutilised facilities, funds which would be much better spent on other priorities.

Thursday Thinkers (12/24)

Javier Milei's troubles in Argentina; the death of the Scottish Enlightenment; how to regulate AI; Bowen's emission's backdown; the limits of industrial policy; how not to fix housing; and how happy are we, really?

It's time for fiscal rules

Oh boy. Another year, another GST carve-up that led to a flurry of complaints from the states that 'lost out'. This time it was the NSW and QLD Labor governments that were the most vocal, with NSW facing a $310 million cut, while QLD lost $469 million. For