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Justin Pyvis

Justin has a PhD in Economics and over 20 years of experience in applied economic, policy and investment analysis with the WA Treasury and AECOM in Perth, and Aletheia Capital in Hong Kong.

📍 Australia

Friday Fodder (28/24)

The Olympics are here, but are they worth it; it's time to stop flogging the greedflation horse; why real wages haven't risen; the future of AI; nuclear is back everywhere except Australia; and an accidental experiment in geoengineering.

Don't bet against betting markets

Betting markets may lean towards Trump over Harris, but the considerable uncertainty priced in reflects a fluid race - and one whose result could reshape the geopolitical landscape for Australia and its neighbours.

Where's the efficiency?

As low-productivity sectors like health care rapidly expand, Australia faces a pressing need to boost productivity in other areas to maintain economic growth and living standards.

Friday Fodder (27/24)

Did we ever really have neoliberalism; inflation is in a sticky spot; Hong Kong is just another mainland city; where are the female managers; Biden will not win another term; and it's not too late for nuclear.

Migrants aren't causing inflation

Inflation is caused by fiscal and monetary policy, not by migrants or other supply shocks, which can only temporarily affect measured inflation by altering relative prices in the economy.

A sensible nuclear policy is in the nation's interest

Australia's nuclear energy debate highlights the need for a sensible, economically sound approach to carbon reduction that considers all options, rather than politically-driven policies that may prove inefficient and costly.

Friday Fodder (26/24)

A Future Made in Australia is a lobbyist's wet dream; social media age limits are based on junk science; we're not as wealthy as we think; inefficiency in Japan; zoning reform isn't enough to fix the housing crisis; and why the UK's most distorted election in history is a win for democracy.

Should we be more like Denmark?

There's a lot to like about Denmark's approach to mortgages, but transplanting it to Australia may not be optimal given our existing regulatory framework and housing policies.

Vienna's secret housing sauce

While Vienna's social housing model is often praised as a solution to housing affordability issues, its applicability to Australia is questionable due to differences in our institutions, as well as potential drawbacks in the Viennese system itself.

Friday Fodder (25/24)

Is an incapacitated Joe Biden still better than the alternative; why politicians lying to people can be dangerous; the diminishing returns to AI (implications for investors); gig workers meet unintended consequences; and Fahrenheit 451 down under.