China
There is no next China
Australia's economic outlook hinges on shifting global supply chains and iron ore demand, as China's manufacturing dominance faces challenges from emerging competitors and geopolitical tensions.
Justin Pyvis
Justin has a PhD in Economics and over 20 years of experience in applied economic, policy and investment analysis with the WA Treasury and AECOM in Perth, and Aletheia Capital in Hong Kong.
Migration
Quotas are always the wrong option
While quotas may seem like an easy fix for Australia's international student influx, a dynamic fee-based system would more efficiently balance demand, distribute benefits equitably, and avoid the perverse incentives of arbitrary caps.
News
Friday Fodder (32/24)
Price gouging is (almost) always good; the EU's tariffs could have been worse; culture beats policy when it comes to fertility; time for fiscal responsibility; and the reality of industrial policy.
Monetary policy
False prophets, forward guidance, and failed lessons
The RBA's conflicting statements on uncertainty and accountability expose a dangerous pattern of misguided forward guidance and unlearned lessons, threatening its credibility and effectiveness in controlling inflation.
Markets
Kamala's policy-pocalypse
Kamala Harris' recent policy proposals are equivalent to the four horsemen of a policy-pocalypse: nothing but misguided attempts to address economic issues that will fail to achieve their stated goals, leading to unintended consequences.
News
Friday Fodder (31/24)
Albo would fail Econ 101; are we in another iron ore winter; what does Raygun have in common with the RBA; Australia's employment recession; could you be an Olympian; China's economic crisis; and how you're able to drink milk.
Industrial policy
Making Australia Great Again
One subsidy at a time.
Monetary policy
Jim Chalmers' Nixon moment
As the Australian government attempts to manipulate inflation metrics through targeted spending, the RBA finds itself in a balancing act between economic stability and political pressure, echoing historical tensions between Nixon and the Fed.
News
Friday Fodder (30/24)
Working from home is good for (almost) everyone; QLD Inc wants to operate its service stations, at great cost; lawyers don't make good economists, Google edition; how nations escape poverty; why we should welcome cheap toasters; and the Romans really loved roads.
Inflation
Bad news is bad news again
A closer look at the recent market rout reveals underlying concerns about Australia's economy, and that the RBA's next moves will be as crucial as ever.
Growth
Russia's Black Death
Russia's booming consumer spending will eventually crash back down to earth, following a historical pattern seen in times of war and disaster, including the 14th century's Black Death.
News
Friday Fodder (29/24)
Rex Airlines' owners should take a haircut; the limits to synthetic AI data; California versus AI; how a cybersecurity firm took out the world's computers; and Paris is showing that it's time to dial back the Olympics.