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Justin Pyvis

Justin has a PhD in Economics and over 20 years of experience in applied economic, policy and investment analysis with the WA Treasury and AECOM in Perth, and Aletheia Capital in Hong Kong.

📍 Australia

Friday Fodder (18/24)

Are smartphones poison to young people; why the Victorian and Western Australian Budgets really irk me; the yanks may have finally spent all their pandemic savings; Europe is confronting the realities of industrial policy; and if you think housing is bad in Australia, at least it's not this bad.

Albo's HECS changes: fairer and cheaper, or regressive and expensive?

Rather than fairer and cheaper, Albo's HECS changes will make the scheme more regressive and expensive, benefiting middle-to-upper income households, distorting work-study incentives, and failing to address real barriers faced by disadvantaged groups.

What's up with Japan?

The yen's collapse has made Japan a tourist hotspot, but it has also sparked crisis fears. While a full-blown crisis is unlikely due to Japan's relatively low interest costs and its ability to raise taxes, an ever-aging population and repeated policy missteps are only increasing the risks.

Friday Fodder (17/24)

A Future Made in Australia picked its latest winner (or loser?); how tipping became the scourge of democracy; should we get rid of non-compete clauses; Steven Miles attempts to buy votes; and the China globalisation paradox.

eSafety and the market for ideas

Australia's eSafety commissioner has been given the impossible task of censoring "harmful" online content - globally. Instead of a censorship tzar of debatable value, a better approach might be to focus resources on promoting critical thinking and demand-side interventions to reduce harmful content.

Inflation's bumpy landing

Australia's March quarter inflation figures came in above expectations. Especially worrying was the sticky services and non-tradables inflation, making rate cuts very unlikely this year. To fix inflation we desperately need fiscal policy to start working with monetary policy, rather than against it.

Friday Fodder (16/24)

Our states should close their foreign offices; the Zuck discusses his AI strategy; why we can't build any more; economists debate AI and productivity; and will China invade Taiwan?

The Kiwi in the coal mine

New Zealand's economy is in trouble, with a double-dip recession and shrinking per capita growth. The decline stems from a lack of productivity reforms and an excessive focus on equity over efficiency. But Australia isn't much better, and we could easily join them if policymakers get complacent.

We're number two!

In 2023, the IMF ranked Australia #2 in the G20 for budget management, mostly due to good luck and fortuitous timing. The government's "responsible approach" claim is overstated and our fiscal position remains vulnerable to economic shocks.

Friday Fodder (15/24)

Senator Nick McKim wasted everyone's time for a headline; the replication crisis in social sciences rolls on; why even a little productivity matters; manufacturing can't create enough good jobs; and how crises past can have long lasting effects on people's financial decision-making.